I had to write down word by word his little interview because it is even more impressive and convincing. In the end I stick to the decision that I’d vote LePen or Fillon in France and close the EU.
Here’s the speech written down word by word, Mark Blyth:
“Well, here’s the thing, my side is very pro- European but I am against the euro, so if I still lived in the United Kingdom I would have an interesting choice.
If you look at Larry Elliott in the Guardian, Larry has said that he thinks he should vote for exit, because this might be the existential crisis that blows up the euro.
Now why would you want to blow up the euro, because that would be terrible etc. etc. Because the long run effect of the euro is going to be to drive western european wages down to eastern european levels and global competition for export share with the Chinese. That’s one interpretation as to where this all goes. And that’s going to be fine for the eastern europeans coming up, it’s going to be great for very efficient exporters in the north. It’s going to be a disaster for France and parts of Italy if not all of Italy and certainly for Greece. Now if you have one system where one side is running a surplus and the other side isn’t allowed to run a deficit because of the rules, the only thing the other side can do is to permanently contract their economy to allow someone else to make money selling BMWs. I don’t see that ending well. So perhaps it’s better to nip it in the bud when you’ve got the chance. Now the thing with Brexit is I don’t think that’s what the debate is about. This is Trumpism, everybody’s got a version of it. – Trumpism? -Trumpism. Donald Trump?- Ok, right, I’ve heard of him- So here’s what I mean by Trumpism: For the past 25 years, particularly the center-left has told the bottom 60% of the income distribution in their countries the following story: globalization is good for you. It’s awesome. It’s really great. We’re going to sign these trade agreements. Don’t worry there will be compensation. You’ll be fine, you’ll all end up as computer programmers, it’ll be fantastic, right? and by the way we don’t really care because we’re all going to move to the middle, because that’s where the voters are, neither the people with the money nor the ones who don’t really care about. So you get this shift under Schroeder, you get the same thing under Blair to New Labour, whatever. And you basically take the bottom 30% of the income distribution and you say: we don’t care what happens to you. You’re now something to be policed. You’re now something to have your behaviours changed. We’re going to nudge you into better parts as the Americans like to say. It’s a very paternal, a very patronizing relationship. This is no longer the warm embrace of social democracy, arm and arm in solidarity with the working classes. They’re there to be policed and excluded in their housing estates, so that you feel safe in your neighbourhoods, so that you can have your private schools, they have their public schools, which you don’t really want to pay taxes for anymore. So once this has evolved over 20 years, you have this revolt, not just against Brexit. It’s not about the EU. It’s about the elites, it’s about the 1%, it’s about the fact that your parties that were meant to serve your interests have sold you down the river. -So, maybe Ukip, LePen maybe…-yeah, they’re all the same. Think how ridiculous this is. Think of the Scottish independence thing, right? So these guys vote to stay in, because the entire british establishment links arm in arm and says “don’t do it”. Now you’ve got to wonder why because who’s going to get hurt if they do it? People with money. So they’re saying don’t do this. Right? So they go “oh, alright then, we won’t do it”. So then the SNP the anti-austerity party, they’re like “ah well we didn’t win that, but you know we’re still in power. Great, on you go.” Ok, so what happens next? If apparently there’s going to be a Brexit, a vote and get out, the Scots are going to vote to get back in. Ok, this is fun, right? So you’re going to give up George Osborne who’s an austerity Chancellor, for who? Dr. Schaeuble. So your nice little scottish welfare state’s going to be really well protected by the tender embrace of the Germans. How is that working out for the Greeks? – Not very well…- Right, people aren’t thinking this one through, this is basically a revolt against technocracy. It is a revolt against governance by unrepresented, unelected, undemocratic elites. And having had a government where every single district in your country says no chance. 61% says no chance. And then the result is we’re going to do it anyway. You’re basically proving to people that democracy is irrelevant. So this is global Trumpism.
So, in the end it’s a no-win scenario? – Well it’s a no-win scenario until basically the elites figure out that at the end of the day as I like to say to my american hedge fund friends, the Hamptons is not a defensible position. The Hamptons is a very rich area on Long Island that lie along low lying beaches. Very hard to defend a low lying beach. Eventually people will come for you.”