I have to give an answer to the ones who say “They have no plan” “They – the brexiteers – made us do Brexit and now they have no plan.” It’s untrue, here’s the plan, already discussed at government level, only Cameron’s cabinet should either apply it now or just go and let it be applied by the next Cabinet. We are not stupid, obviously there was a Brexit plan.
BREXIT PLAN, UK side;
A smooth Brexit
Latest figures show retail sales up, average earnings up, employment up and continued economic growth. The fear of Brexit or the run up to the vote did not depress the economy in the way forecast. It is good news that bonds are so strong, and shares have rallied after an initial relapse. Government needs to instil confidence and work as it used to promote investment, job creation and economic progress.
I have been in discussion with the government about how we can best ensure a smooth and early Brexit (…) We need to move in a purposeful and friendly way to achieve an early settlement which deals with the worries and fears of those who voted Remain.
The aim should be to secure the main point of the campaign, taking back control, as soon as possible. We have only achieved this aim when we have repealed the European Communities Act. We can also reassure and make it easier to achieve exit by taking over all the current EU laws and rules and incorporating them en bloc into UK law, so nothing else changes other than control. This should reassure our former EU partners and assist the negotiation over trade and other matters.
Once we have taken control we will need to legislate urgently to put in place the points system promised to control migration from the rest of the EU. This matter is not negotiable. We will also need to take back our contributions, so we can get on with the spending and tax plans set out in the Leave campaign.
(…) The UK need not seek any changes to the current arrangements to minimise disruption. The other 27 will need to decide amongst themselves what additional barriers if any they want to place on their trade with us, and then negotiate them with us bilaterally. I would be surprised if they wanted to impose much by way of impediments to their trade. So far they have not suggested any I have seen, other than trying to cancel the financial sector passports. I have written at length on possible responses to this. Under World Trade organisation rules there are strict limits on tariffs on most items anyway which would keep them to low levels, well below the recent fall in the value of the pound which has improved our competitiveness.
The situation is very different from trying to negotiate a free trade agreement with a foreign country that has high tariff and non tariff barriers at the moment. There it takes time as each side weighs up the advantage of surrendering a protection it think matters, even if the protection is in fact self defeating. This negotiation starts from free trade and common rules for some services between us and them. The only question is therefore why change anything? What do they want to change as punishment, and is it legal to do so under global rules? Won’t it do them more damage than us? As it is more imports than exports for us there are plenty of other places around the world who would like to sell to us if the EU decides to become dearer or more difficult. Once anger has been calmed and business has lobbied them not to do damage, it should prove easier to achieve a decent answer for both sides.
Moreover about the dearest matters of immigration, welfare handouts and control, it’s all perfect:
“If the EU sticks to its view that it cannot allow the UK to have any control over migration, the negotiations will be very short. The UK must refuse to continue with freedom of movement, so there will be no basis to reach a new agreement.
This means the Uk will simply need to withdraw from the EU and rely for our trade with the EU on most favoured nation status under World Trade Organisation rules. Average tariffs are very low, though they can be higher against German cars and French agricultural produce. The UK does not want to impose tariffs, but if the rest of the EU does impose tariffs up to WTO limits the UK will obviously retaliate.
(…) The UK will still benefit from the main advantage of the single market, the fact that you can produce a product to the same standard to sell anywhere in the EU. The recent fall in the pound is bigger than the extra costs WTO tariffs and ruled could impose, so our competitiveness will still be better.
In some ways this makes it so much easier. If The EU does not want to listen to the UKs needs then they have to accept we can just leave and they may end up imposing obstacles to their very successful exports at a time when the fall in the pound has just made them dearer.”
I have to add that France has already given up dreaming to be able to impose immigration rules to the UK. So they have basically already surrendered.
Another very important part of the trading factor with the beautiful rest of the world outside EU is that the dearest friends of New Zealand have literally offered to the UK their team of very best trade negotiators to strike the best possible trade deals with the rest of the world.
It’s all sunny and joy, I have to remind you that while John Redwood’s Diary is all for free to read the link New Zealand offers UK… etc. you find below is a Telegraph link, this means you can have only ten article per month for free, so if you’re not interested don’t click it or you lose it.
New Zealand has offered its top trade negotiators to the United Kingdom, relieving the … These experts require years of experience to become proficient, time that the UK …